If we could predict the future, what would the world be like? There would be millions of lottery winners every day. There would be no freak accidents. The stock market would be zero risk. There would be no deaths by natural disasters. But we cannot predict the future; no matter how accurate our formulas, algorithms, hypotheses and predictions are, they are still just educated guesses. We don’t criminalize stock brokers for failing to predict a market crash. We don’t criminalize the car companies when someone gets in an accident, and we don’t criminalize gas station stores when we don’t win the lottery.

Back in 2009, Italy was struck by a massive earthquake that resulted in 308 deaths and about 1,500 severe injuries. Leading up to the quake, Italy’s top geological scientists registered increased seismic activity, but made the assessment that an earthquake was not imminent.  Specifically, they said that a quake was “unlikely but not impossible.”

Now, three years later, seven of the scientists involved in the quake prediction have been convicted of manslaughter and sentenced to six years in prison. Let’s cover that again: Italian scientists have been sent to prison for failing to predict the future.

Seismologists and scientists from all other fields of study around the world have voiced complete outrage at the Italian government’s actions. By criminalizing the failure of scientists to predict the future, this ruling has set a dangerous precedent that will significantly hinder scientific research in the future.  If scientists are afraid that making a mistake will land them in prison with a manslaughter charge, they will be too afraid to pursue any sort of meaningful research.

In response to the Italian government’s ludicrous actions, many of the government’s top scientists have resigned their positions in protest.  Among those who have left their posts is world-famous physicist Luciano Maiami, former head of CERN and the (now former) head of Italy’s top disaster committee, the National Commission for the Forecast and Prevention of Major Risks. All seven of the convicted scientists were part of this committee. Now, not only has Italy ostracized a large group of experts that could have helped prepare for future events, but it has created an environment completely unconducive to proper scientific work.

“If scientists can be held personally and legally responsible for situations where predictions don’t pan out, then it will be very hard to find scientists to stick their necks out in the future,” said David Oglesby, an associate professor at the earth sciences faculty of the University of California, Riverside in a press statement.

Luckily, no other government in the world has ever sought to punish scientists for failing to predict the future, and hopefully no government ever will.  However, there is an issue at hand that is even larger than this isolated incident.  Such governmental actions are indicative of an endemic condition of governmental scientific illiteracy.  Here we have scientists, using every tool available to them, working in the best interest of millions of people, and they are now being punished by the state they worked so hard to help.

As Maiami said, “In no uncertain terms, this is the end of scientists giving consultations to the state.”
I wrote a column last week on the problems with scientific illiteracy in our own government. It is a well-known fact among seismologists that earthquakes remain nearly impossible to predict with any kind of accuracy, and a national government, especially national court systems, should be well aware that scientific fact should hold more weight than emotional testimony.

While it is unconscionable to try and downplay the heartbreak and despair of losing loved ones, convicting honest, well-intentioned scientists of manslaughter does nothing to help the situation at all.  Not only does it not bring  back loved ones who were lost in the quake, but it will make scientists think twice before sharing information that could potentially save many, many lives in the future.

It is my opinion — one that is shared by arguably every scientist — that governments and courts need to familiarize themselves with how scientific research and predictions actually work. It is exactly this uninformed behavior that has relegated Italy to an embarrassingly low ranking on the Index of Economic Freedom, subpar public infrastructure, astronomically high national deficit and little to no government-funded research.

Let’s take advice from Italy on how to make lasagna, not on how to deal with earthquakes.

HUDSON LOFCHIE can be reached at science@theaggie.org

It is no secret that the planet is running out of resources, some faster than others. Many sources predict we will run out of fossil fuels within the next century. Global agriculture is producing more food than ever with less arable land, and still one in seven people are going hungry, a number said to increase as the population increases.

Besides the resources with monetary significance, we are losing things with biological value as well. The endangered species list for aquatic animals shows no signs of slowing its growth. In addition, more than 56,000 acres of rainforest are lost each year and hundreds of species are destroyed or put in danger. Due to the lack of knowledge about the deep sea and rainforest species, and how they may be able to benefit humanity, we may be losing so much more than we realize.

The global concerns for resources are not new, but there is one resource that people fail to recognize on a regular basis because it is so second-nature. A resource that we use every day and can never get back once we have used it. A resource that we can watch but never touch. That resource is time. As you read this, you are the youngest you will ever be for the rest of your life.

There are 525,600 minutes in a regular 365-day year. In the average year of a full-time college student, 183,456 minutes are spent sleeping, 139,776 minutes are spent working or doing educational activities (i.e. going to class and studying), 78,624 are spent doing leisure activities, 32,760 are spent traveling,  24,024 are spent eating and drinking, and 17,472 are spent grooming. About half of the time left over is spent performing other responsibilities — visiting our families, taking care of our pets, washing our cars, waiting in line at the post office, etc. The 24,048 minutes left are used for activities of personal interest. That bit of time we take for ourselves amounts to only 4.5 percent of our year.

Technology development has allowed people to cut corners and multitask. Dishwashers, laundry machines and the like free us from time-consuming tasks. The option to open multiple tabs while browsing online or doing computer work combines leisure time with time used for our jobs. DVRs allows you to fast-forward through commercials. Fast-food revolutionized the American lifestyle by allowing more time for leisure, work or responsibilities. While these are all great strides in the fight to maximize and utilize our time efficiently, a lot more time goes unnecessarily wasted.

When you wake up and press snooze several times for the five more minutes of sleep, that adds to about 10,000 wasted minutes every year.  That is seven full days a year that you will never get back.  When you check your Facebook several times a day for 10 minutes at a time, you spend 14,560 minutes a year on that one social networking site. If you have mobile internet, that number is probably much higher. Even simple things, like making a decision about where to get food for dinner or which cereal to buy add up to over 1,000 minutes.

By now you are probably telling yourself there is nothing you can do to cut back on how you spend your time. We are college students — some with jobs, most with a full load of units and all with daily responsibilities that must be done. True, there is no way to cut out school and work, but there is another way to get the most out of our free time.

It all starts with figuring out how you want to spend your day. Have a goal for the end of the day. Spend some more time on something other than the internet or television. Make a resolution to wake up on time from naps and when you sleep. Turn off your phone for ten minutes a day instead of checking in over and over again. Use the new extra time on yourself.

We often silently wish we had more time to do this or that, or to try that new hobby but we just got too busy. You have time to do those things, and invest in your happiness. Do what interests you and spend time on things you feel are invaluable. Do not wait and resign yourself to watching sand pass through the hourglass, because time is irreplaceable.

Many times, we find ourselves asking how we spent our day because it seems like it went by too quickly or that we hardly got any work done. Move through life, moment to moment, with a purpose, and you will find yourself asking that question less frequently. Hopefully after reading this, you can say that the few minutes you dedicated were worth it.

NICOLE NOGA can be reached at science@theaggie.org.

Digital Adderall

The Problem
It’s late at night and a big paper is due tomorrow morning. There is an empty Word document staring angrily back from the monitor. What follows is a few minutes on Facebook, and then another few minutes spent checking emails, getting a snack, Youtube, etc. In retrospect, the hard part wasn’t having things to say; a lot of the real difficulty came from focusing long enough to just put ideas down on the page.

Enter WriteRoom, a solution developed by Hog Bay Software designed to help reduce clutter and get words on the page.

The Solution
WriteRoom is an app for Mac OS, iPad and iPhone that clears the screen of everything but text and a blinking text cursor. There is no desktop, no icons, no buttons and no tools. The objective is to free the user from worrying about fiddling with the margins and fonts, as well as minimizing the ‘multitasking’ process.

Focused Anywhere
Writeroom utilizes the sync services incorporated by Dropbox.com to keep projects at your fingertips and accessible at all times.

How much is it?
Hog Bay provides a free version on their website and license keys for $9.99. However, when bundled with TaskPaper, a mobile open-format to-do list application normally available for $24.99, WriteRoom is included for $5.00.
If WriteRoom isn’t for you, or if you don’t own a Mac, there are alternatives that run on Windows, including WriteMonkey and FocusWriter.

– Alan Lin

The Mind Map

The Problem
If you are like me, you’ll often start a paper with a perfect idea of what to write, and halfway through the first sentence, you’ll have completely forgotten what you are writing about. Your brain has all these ideas flying around, and it seems impossible to simply grab them in order and put them on a page.  You could handwrite or type an outline, but it becomes cumbersome to cut and paste when you need to reorder something.  In these situations, my savior is MindNode.

The Solution
MindNode is a mind mapping application for Mac OS and iOS platforms.  It allows you to create a “map” of your thoughts, visually connecting all of your ideas into an organized, easy to view display.  In essence, MindNode is an outline on steroids.  You can drag ideas around, attach them to different nodes, color code, organize by importance and even export your mind map to a textual outline.  MindNode even allows you to upload your mind maps directly to Dropbox or export them to a printable PDF document.

Options
MindNode has both free and professional versions.  The free version, MindNode Lite, works amazingly, and I used it for years. However, the professional version adds in some functionality that makes mind mapping even easier.  The professional version is a little pricy at $19.99 on the Apple App Store, but if organizing thoughts for papers has been a consistent problem for you, it may very well be worth it.

Wrap Up
There are many mind mapping applications out there, but MindNode has been my favorite because they constantly provide free updates to their software based on customer input.  If you want to check out the alternatives, the best ones are FreeMind for Windows, Mac OS and Unix, and Visual Understanding Environment (VUE), also available for all three operating systems.

Pro Tip
I often use MindNode in conjunction with WriteRoom (see other Tech Tips article).  If you happen to have a second computer monitor, you can full-screen your mind map on one screen, and have your distraction free writing environment on the other monitor.

– Hudson Lofchie