There is a good chance there won’t be any wild-caught salmon in California this year.

The Pacific Fisheries Management Council adopted three options for public review regarding the 2008 salmon season off the coast of California and Oregon at its conference in Sacramento on Friday.

Two of the options would completely shut down salmon fishing due to unprecedented low numbers of returning salmon. The council will adopt its final decision in early April after hearing public comment.

The concern focuses around California’s Central Valley rivers in which only an estimated 59,100 chinook salmon will spawn this fall – a number that falls far short of the minimum conservation goal of 122,000.

Delegates to the Pacific Fisheries Management Council from California, Oregon, Washington and the commercial fishing industry have already closed seven coastal fishing zones that traditionally open before the regular May 1 start of the season.

If you’re expecting 122,000 salmon and you’re only going to get 60,000, it doesn’t take a great imagination to see that a fishery wouldn’t be that great, said Jim Milbury, spokesperson for National Marine Fisheries Service. I think everybody recognizes that by looking at the numbers.

The problem is especially alarming because the Central Valley chinook salmon has never been a constraining stock, said David Goldenberg, CEO of the California Salmon Council.

There is a solemn mood throughout the fishing industry about the collapse, Goldenberg said.

We’re all still stunned and trying to scramble and figure out what will be done, he said.

The California Salmon Council is working with members of Congress to convince commerce secretary Carlos Gutierrez to authorize Congress to distribute disaster funds to Pacific Coast commercial fishermen and related businesses.

Disaster appropriations will likely be fashioned after the 2006 aid package of $60.4 million given to the industry when the Klamath River stock collapsed due to low water conditions, Goldenberg said.

[Disaster funds] will probably be more because [recreational fishing] will be effected in 2008 whereas they weren’t in 2006, he said.

If the option allowing limited fishing in Washington is chosen, the Salmon Council has another way of mitigating the effects of the collapse. It has a grant to hire commercial fishermen to take fin samples in a catch-and-release genetics study aimed at determining the salmons’ rivers of origin for more efficient fishery management. This program might be reconsidered, however, due to the mortality rate associated with catch-and-release, Goldenberg said.

There is no consensus on what exactly is causing the lower returns, but changes in ocean condition are likely a key factor.

The ocean has been acting up lately, said Bill Peterson, an oceanographer with the National Marine Fisheries Service. Most of the problems from this year are related to a problem in 2005.

Upwelling, the wind-driven process of bringing cooler nutrient-rich water to the surface, usually begins in April, but in 2005 it didn’t start until August.

Chinook spend three to four years at sea. They go to sea expecting to find upwelling and lots of stuff to eat, Peterson said. Salmon need to eat every day. The last three years have been suboptimal for them.

Scientists can’t definitively say the changes in ocean patterns are the result of global warming, but they are consistent with global climate models of the warming process, Peterson said.

Things are different. The rules are going to change and we don’t know what they’ll change to, he said. It’s too soon to say but in five years we’ll probably know.

ALYSOUN BONDE can be reached at city@californiaaggie.com.

The California budget deficit has recently sparked a multitude of reactions from California state officials.

California Assembly speaker Fabian Núñez recently proposed Assembly Bill 9xxx, which was intended to raise revenues for teachers in order to offset deficits the education system has faced due to recent state budget cuts. The bill planned to tax large oil companies to gain extra funds – however, the bill was turned down by the state assembly Wednesday.

While California is facing billions in cuts to schools, big oil companies are raking in record profits – without paying for the oil they take from California, said Núñez in a press release. If red states like Texas, Colorado, and Montana tax oil production to fund the services they value, then so should we.

AB 9xxx would have set a 6 percent severance tax on oil extracted in California. The profits would have been used to offset teacher layoffs from Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s budget cuts to the education system, the press release said.

Although Núñez intended for AB 9xxx to prohibit oil producers or purchasers from using the tax to raise prices at gas pumps, California residents and organizations remain skeptical that the consumer will be unaffected.

Representative Audra Strickland was one of the Republican members of the assembly who voted against the bill Wednesday.

Democrats are not the heroes saving the day for education but the very culprits that have caused this fiscal crisis we find today in our state, said Strickland in an e-mail release. AB 9xxx is, at best, a publicity stunt solely to say we are addressing the state’s education needs and, at worst, a continuation of the failed tax and spend policy that has created the state’s financial emergency.

Núñez faced mainly Republican opposition when presenting his bill to the assembly. State representatives such as Strickland strongly opposed the bill, and thus it was unable to pass with the two-thirds majority support that it needed.

It’s a tax increase and that tax increase on the oil companies will be transferred over to the average consumer who is purchasing gas, said Sam Chung, communication director for Strickland. Gas prices are so high already, and a lot of people are just looking to get from home to work and back … and they shouldn’t have to compromise that just because the California legislature wasn’t able to manage [its] budget correctly.

Increasing taxes is not a solution to the California budget deficit, Chung added. California officials must discuss specific stipulations of the budget deficit before raising prices that could potentially make a negative impact on consumers.

A California legislature needs to be able to manage [its] budget first before we even talk about putting taxes on people, Chung said.

The California Taxpayers Association shares similar opinions that the budget deficit should be sufficiently discussed before any action is taken.

We should be discussing how we are going to address the budget deficit; those types of discussions are not happening, said Teresa Casazza president, of the California Taxpayers Association. [AB 9xxx] was introduced 24 hours before it was heard…. It was a knee-jerk reaction to the budget deficit.

If a tax was imposed on California oil companies, ultimately there would be additional costs that would lead to higher gas prices for consumers, Casazza said.

To say that the oil producers don’t pay their tax in California is not correct, Casazza said. These types of higher taxing prices would make a greater dependency on foreign oil, which will make oil more costly…. We are already too dependent on oil [being imported] from the Middle East.

California is currently in the top-10 highest-taxing of all states that produce oil, at approximately number five. If AB 9xxx were to be imposed, California would be by far the highest-taxing state in the nation, Casazza said.

California officials continue to propose solutions to the budget deficit, but until an agreeable solution is reached, California will continue to face this devastating budget struggle.

More information about speaker Núñez’s bill and the California budget in general is available at democrats.assembly.ca.gov/members/a46/default.aspx.

CAITLIN COBB can be reached at city@californiaaggie.com.

Despite a $4 million budget cut, Emerson Junior High School will be taking a joyride on the Ferris wheel.

The Davis Planning Commission recently approved a temporary carnival that will take place Apr. 10. This four-day carnival, run by Butler Amusements, will operate at Cannery Park on East Covell Boulevard and J Street as a fundraiser for the Emerson Junior High Parent Teacher Association.

It will be a community benefit and a community activity, said Greg Clumpner, chairperson of Davis Planning Commission. We didn’t feel there are any significant impacts for preventing [the fundraiser] from happening.

The Emerson Carnival will feature around 18 rides, said PTA co-president Frances McChesney.

There are fair-quality rides, like the Zipper, the Century Wheel, the Cliff Hanger and the Loli Swings, McChesney said. There’s going to be rides for different age groups.

Other attractions include carnival games and prizes, food concession stands, music and a performance stage to showcase miscellaneous acts and talents by students, teachers and parents.

The PTA is also organizing a stage and we’re going to have the jazz band, martial arts demonstrations, a rock band and a few other musical performances, McChesney said.

The PTA first came up with the idea of creating a carnival after a simple click online about a month ago.

I was searching online for fundraising ideas and came across the Butler Company, McChesney said.

In the past, Emerson Junior High has had fundraisers, such as an auction two years ago in which the school raised around $20,000 to $30,000. The PTA hopes to be just as successful.

The PTA raises money every year and gives grants back to the school, said PTA treasurer Ellen Morrati. It could be used for the music program, to purchase books and other equipments for classrooms. Until we know how much money we raise it’s hard to tell what the money will be used for.

Admission is free, but advance tickets for an all-day unlimited ride pass are now on sale for $20. Individual tickets for single rides will also be for sale at the gate.

Everybody is welcome to come and participate and get into the carnival for free. This gives the community the opportunity to do activities and things together, Morrati said.

Tickets for the Emerson Carnival can be purchased at Carousel Stationery at 706 Second St.

For more information, e-mail emersoncarnival@gmail.com. The operating hours are Thursday and Friday 4 to 10 p.m., Saturday 11 a.m. to 11 p.m. and Sunday noon to 10 p.m.

There hasn’t been a carnival since 1971, McChesney said. This will be a really fun event.

JANET HUNG can be reached at city@californiaaggie.com.

As Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)continues to enjoy a surge of momentum generated by 11 consecutive primary and caucus election victories over rival Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY), questions persist over the role Democratic superdelegates will play in determining the party’s eventual nominee.

The approximately 796 unpledged party leaders and elected official delegates (PLEO delegates), who are free to cast their own votes at the Democratic National Convention in August, could play the role of tiebreaker if neither Obama nor Clinton emerges carrying the magic number of 2,025 pledged delegates. Currently, Clinton leads Obama in the superdelegate count, 241-181, according to a recent Associated Press survey.

UC Davis professor emeritus of political science Edmond Costantini said he has never seen a Democratic nominating contest marked by such pronounced deadlock.

My offhand recollection is [the superdelegates] have never been decisive, he said.

There has never been a scenario in which a candidate was pushed to the nomination on the strength of superdelegate support alone, he added.

The superdelegate rule was established following the 1980 election in which there was a perception among party leaders that they had largely been left out of deciding the Democratic presidential ticket. This was after changes had been made to allow greater public participation – a response to previous elections which were decided largely by party leaders, Costantini said.

The notion was, in addition to the primaries and caucuses, we ought to have ex officiopositions opened up, he said. That’s basically what the superdelegates are all about.

Not bound in any way to support a candidate even if they make an endorsement announcement, superdelegates normally do not have much difficulty in choosing who they support, Costantini said.

I think usually the process is one out of which a single candidate emerges as the obvious nominee by the time of the convention. Consequently there is very little angst about how they will vote, he said.

Theoretically, superdelegates could become involved, and any possibility of a Clinton nomination under the premise that Obama receives more pledge delegates could cause a stir in the party, Costantini said.

The most likely possibility is Obama is the obvious winner once we end the primary and caucus season, at which point the superdelegates will be encouraged to not change the outcome, he said.

Other more unlikely scenarios include Obama winning the nomination flat out – an event discouraged by the fact that all Democratic primaries allocate delegates proportionately – or Clinton doing well enough in remaining states to declare a virtual tie in pledged delegates, thus validating her claim to be the nominee, Costantini said.

There might be a clear path to the nomination for Obama, but not for Clinton, he said.

The superdelegates range from weary to enthusiastic, as a result of public intrigue created around voting anxiety.

I’m tired of these phone calls, said Maria Echaveste, former White House deputy chief of staff under the second Clinton administration and current part-time lecturer at the UC Berkeley School of Law. A member on the Executive Committee of the Democratic National Committee, Echaveste is one of California’s 66 superdelegates.

The superdelegate system is in place because of the need for experienced members of the party to contribute to the election of the nominee, Echaveste said.

I think it reflects that there are party leaders … that have a breadth of experience that the party wants to be able to tap, she said.

Echaveste said she has no reservations regarding the legitimacy of a system that could potentially alter the decision of a majority of voters.

Echavaste said she has decided to support Clinton because of what she described as a depth of experience that would help her win a general election against the Republican nominee and govern the country in the face of serious challenges.

First District Representative Mike Thompson (D-CA) is a superdelegate who threw his support behind Clinton on Jan. 14, well before his constituency voted in the state’s Feb. 5 primary election.

It’s exciting that we have two fantastic and historic candidates who have generated an incredible energy across our country, bringing out millions of new voters, he said in a statement directed toward his communications director, Anne Warden.

Our congressional district, like the country, is divided as to which candidate should lead our party in November, Thompson said. However, I don’t believe superdelegates will decide the nominee. I will continue to participate in the nomination process and will support our nominee 100 percent.

Obama ended up receiving more votes than Clinton in Thompson’s district by a margin of less than 1,000 votes (47,597-46,811).

Steven Ybarra, a Sacramento-based superdelegate who heads the voting rights committee of the Democratic National Committee Hispanic Caucus, said he was unenthusiastic about the nominating process as a whole.

Ybarra said he questions the process because of what he saw in the early January Iowa caucus, which often serves as an indicator for which presidential hopefuls are likely to win their party’s nomination.

This whole nomination process sucks, he said. Why is it that 100,000 white people in Iowa get to determine who the nominee is? While eager to argue the position of California at the national level, Ybarra said the superdelegate system would be arcane if there were a primary process in every state, instead of caucuses in some, which limits participation.

As of now, Ybarra said he is uncommitted primarily because neither candidate has made a commitment as to what they will do with the Latino voter once they get the nomination.

Specifically, Ybarra said Obama and Clinton would have to make several commitments before receiving his support, including a national voter registration project aimed at the Latino voter and aiding in the citizenship process of Mexican Americans, which would increase the number of registered Latino voters in Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Texas and Nevada.

As for the issue of whether his assembly of superdelegates may shift the Democratic contest one way or the other, Ybarra said he is ready to influence the outcome.

I hope it’s me, he said. I hope I’m the tiebreaker.

CHINTAN DESAI can be reached at city@californiaaggie.com.