White, Bowman dominate on way to 3-1 victory

With four straight conference losses heading into the match on Saturday, Oct. 7, the UC Davis women’s volleyball team knew that it would need to right the ship as it heads into the latter half of the 2017 season. In the opening game against the Patriots of CSU Long Beach, it did just that. The Aggies dominated the first two sets on their way to a 3-1 victory where they scored 84 points to Long Beach’s 53.5.

UC Davis came out aggressively to secure the first set win. It was freshman setter Paloma Bowman who set up her team’s run, amassing 57 assists, many of which were finished by freshman hitter Mahalia White, who began the match with three kills on the team’s first five points before eventually finishing the night with 23 kills en-route to her 25.5 point outing.

Bowman knew the importance of getting back in the win column, and was overjoyed to finally get there after the team’s recent skid.

“It was good to finally win,” Bowman said. “We’ve been working for it for a long time, so it’s nice that it finally paid off. I think we’re getting a lot better. We’re improving every day.”

Bowman’s play also caught the eye of head coach Dan Conners, who credited his setter with embracing the challenge in her first year at the college level.

“The passing was awesome. The passing did a great job, and the hitters were just fearless and ruthless and they were just getting after it,” Conners said. “[Bowman is] only a freshman and she still has a lot to learn about the game. She’s just working on her consistency, and she’s understanding the game more and more, and as she gets better the team gets better.”

For White, a great performance like this was needed, a sentiment that was echoed by her coach. The effort wasn’t lacking in the four conference losses that preceded this game — it was just a matter of putting everything together.

“We were just very hungry for a win tonight,” White said. “We always say how we’re going to come out fired up, and today we just came out there wanting the win, wanting to keep playing aggressive the whole time.”

Despite the great performances from White and Bowman, this wasn’t a two-person show. The entire team showed up, including sophomore outside hitter Lauren Matias amassing 17 kills of her own and 17.5 points, junior outside hitter Emily Allen finishing with 13 points on 11 kills and junior middle blocker Lauren Jackson racking up 12 points on 10 kills. Overall, the team accumulated 84 points on 67 kills, with 26 errors.

Not every set went smoothly, however. The team ran into some struggles in the third set, where despite matching the pace of the Patriots for most of the set, the team was unable to overcome a late three-point deficit. It was the response to this adversity which gave White hope in her team.

“We totally just wiped it out of our memories,” White said. “We were just like, ‘You know what? This set right here, we’re just going to reset the way we were playing the first two sets, and we’re just going to go out there and kill it.’”

Going forward, the team hopes to build off this exciting win, as there are still many games to be played. Conners hopes the team can draw from both the negatives and the positives to continue its upward trend into the next game, when it takes on UC Riverside on the road.

“Just to remember what it feels like to play with that level of determination and focus and energy and aggressiveness,” Conners said. “The moments where we backed off and got tentative were toward the end of that third set and part of that fourth set. We’ve just got to remember the consistency of our mentality is vital to how we want to play the game.”

The team will go on the road for two games before returning home on Tuesday, Oct. 17, to play UC Santa Barbara at 7 p.m.

Written by: Bradley Geiser — sports@theaggie.org

UC Davis football comes up just short against Eastern Washington

Saturday night’s contest at Aggie Stadium featured a head-to-head collision of the Big Sky Conference’s top passing Eastern Washington Eagles’ offense and UC Davis’ top-ranked passing defense. After a hotly-contested, back-and-forth ballgame, the Eagles attack gained the upper hand, handing the Aggies a 41-38 loss.

This highly-anticipated matchup drew sparks from the outset, in front of a crowd buzzing from the UC Davis Brewfest that took place in the hours before kickoff. Eastern Washington marched right down the field on its first possession, scoring on a 40-yard touchdown pass on the fourth play of the drive. The Eagles missed the extra point, putting them ahead 6-0 early. The Aggies, on the other hand, relied on the big play ability of junior receiver Keelan Doss to get things rolling offensively. Sophomore quarterback Jake Maier hooked up with Doss for a 26-yard completion to get things rolling. It was junior quarterback CJ Spencer, however, who found the end zone for the Aggies some 11 plays later, sneaking in from just a yard out. A successful extra point from sophomore kicker Max O’Rourke put the Aggies in front 7-6.

The scoring cooled down for the remainder of the half. UC Davis failed to score any points, despite being set up with optimal field position after senior defensive end Brandon Weaver tipped and intercepted a third down pass from Eastern Washington’s quarterback Gage Gubrud. The teams traded touchdowns as the game rolled into the second quarter, but the scoring dried out, and the Aggies went into break with a 14-13 lead.

After a relatively low-scoring first half, UC Davis came out in the third quarter running the ball ten straight times — but it was a trick play that sprang its offense to life again. Maier threw a quick lateral to Spencer, who then opted to pass the ball downfield, completing his only pass attempt of the night to a triple-covered sophomore tight end Wesley Preece for a 24-yard gain. On the next play, it was Maier’s turn to launch the ball downfield, completing a 16-yard touchdown pass to Doss, who sprawled out to make the catch. Doss’ fifth touchdown in six games gave the Aggies a 21-13 lead.

Eastern Washington’s Gubrud tossed his third touchdown on the ensuing Eagles drive, again putting his team within one. But just two plays later, Doss made what was most likely the catch of the year for UC Davis. With a defender draped all over him, Doss dove to make an electrifying one-handed grab for a 21-yard gain. Doss’ impressive hands propelled the Aggies to a score just five plays after. Off a play-action fake, Maier delivered a pass in between defenders to freshman tight end Christian Skeptaris, who held on for his first career touchdown with time running out in third quarter.

UC Davis’ momentum rolled on into the early part of the final frame. Junior defensive back Vincent White broke on a pass from Eastern Washington’s Gubrud, intercepting the ball and nearly returning it for a touchdown. The game’s second turnover was enough to set up a 26-yard field goal from O’Rourke, extending the Aggie lead, 31-20 with 11:38 to play.

Up two scores, UC Davis looked to have the upper hand, but there was still plenty of time on the clock — especially for the explosive Eagles offensive. Showing just how explosive it could be, Eastern Washington scored on the very first play of its next drive when Eagles speedster, Nsimba Webster, torched the Aggie defense for 71 yards on a pass from Gubrud. A failed two-point conversion following the touchdown made it a four-point contest, but Eastern Washington was only just beginning to mount its comeback. A three-and-out by the UC Davis offense gave the ball right back to Eastern Washington, which scored again just 57 seconds later, this time succeeding on the two-point conversion.

With their backs to the wall for the first time, the Aggies put together a resilient 11-play drive capped by Spencer’s third rushing touchdown — a career-high. Spencer found a hole in the Eagles defense, stomping into the end zone from 10 yards out to pull UC Davis in front 38-34.

“Everybody on this team has a job,” Spencer said. “Whether you’re getting one play a game, or you’re redshirting, or you’re playing every single snap — everybody has a role. And [the coaches] came up to me and said, ‘You need to run the ball, you need to score some touchdowns in the red zone.’ So I accepted my role and I followed by o-line and Derek [Baljeu] and just did my job.”

Even after this late score by UC Davis that injected life back into Aggie Stadium, the Eastern Washington offense did not waver. On the ensuing drive, the Eagles gained 23 yards on a key fourth down to move the chains and finally scored on Gubrud’s sixth touchdown pass of the night — a beauty that floated high into the corner of the end zone. Now trailing by three points with 1:32 to play, UC Davis ran 12 plays to get itself in position for a 49-yard field goal attempt.

“The mindset [in that situation] was to take what [Eastern Washington was] giving us,” Maier said. “Give ourselves a chance, get us in a situation where we could take it down to the last play. I know the mindset that our coaching staff has is we want to go for the win — we’re very aggressive. Credit to [Eastern Washington], that’s a great team. We have to work even harder from here on out. If we want to have success and if we want experience that glory again, we have to work even harder for it.”

The Aggies hoped O’Rourke could send the game into overtime, but his kick came up well short of the goal, sealing UC Davis’ fate. Head coach Dan Hawkins, although obviously disappointed with the result, remained level-headed and proud of how his team performed.

“When you play these kind of games, the margin of error is just real small,” Hawkins said. “But our guys […] did not back down and were not phased at all by the moment or the score. We got beat by a pretty good football team, but it was a spectacle.”

The loss was UC Davis’ third this season, dropping the team’s record back down to an even 3-3. There were, however, plenty of bright spots for UC Davis in the otherwise negative result. The Aggie offense racked up 551 yards of total offense, out-gaining their Eastern Washington counterparts by 50 yards. Doss recorded a career-high 208 yards receiving. His quarterback, Maier, had another stellar outing, throwing for over 300 yards for the fifth consecutive game — while adding in two touchdowns and no turnovers. Despite giving up 41 points, UC Davis also forced two interceptions on the evening, but could only muster just three points off these two turnovers. Hawkins was pleased with how his defense made plays against such a difficult opponent.

“[Eastern Washington] is hard to defend, just like we’re hard to defend,” Hawkins said. “It’s hard to shut [Eastern Washington] down. We tried to keep them off balance, keep them off rhythm. You got to maximize your opportunities to force their hand, so I thought our defense did a great job.”

Even after a heartbreaking loss, Hawkins had nothing but emotional, heartfelt words for his players, calling them “the real deal” and praising each player for accepting his role within the team. Saturday night was a legitimate chance for UC Davis to pick up a win against one of the best teams in the conference, but ultimately became an evening that just got away from the Aggies. The team will have a chance to return to its winning ways after a week of rest, when it travels to Northern Arizona on Saturday, Oct. 22.

Written by: Dominic Faria — sports@theaggie.org

As Davis’ offensive line goes, so too goes the offense

The Aggies went on the road to Weber State and things did not go well. The following week they faced North Dakota at home and things suddenly went very well. What gives? Three words: offensive line play. Against Weber, sophomore quarterback Jake Maier was under frequent duress, and as a result had less time to find receivers down field for big plays. Similarly, the Aggie rushing attack was inhibited, with the Weber defensive backs frequently contacting Aggie runners behind the line of scrimmage, resulting in fewer yards per carry. Against North Dakota, the offensive line was far more successful. The result was a more efficient and explosive offense with a higher proportion of its plays resulting in greater average gains in yardage.

Digging In

You may remember that during the Portland State game, the left side of the Aggies’ offensive line was somewhat porous. In that game, sophomore quarterback Jake Maier was under near constant duress from the left, but managed to scramble, buy time, and not allow the pressure to affect him. As a quick reminder, here’s two plots illustrating the point.

This was all fine during the Portland State game, because the blitzes weren’t getting home, and Portland State struggled to generate points by any means. Less so versus Weber State, which brought the pass rush early and often.

Two Steps Away from the County Line

Here’s a bald statement that doesn’t get said enough: offensive line play matters. Columnists don’t typically discuss line play because audiences don’t typically pay attention to it. Why? Likely because most audiences are watching the ball, and guess who rarely touches the ball? You got it, the big fellas up front. Instead, we talk about running backs who accumulate absurd yardage totals, or a quarterback’s stunning efficiency . It’s much harder to appreciate the right guard’s ability to pull to the left side, seal the B-gap, and generate a nice running lane for his H-Back. Nevertheless, offensive line play matters, and it mattered against Weber. Here’s two plots that encapsulate why the Aggies got blown out in Utah.

Yikes. That’s not what you want to see. During the Aggies’ nine, non-garbage time offensive drives, the quarterback was pressured or the running back was hit behind the offensive line 48.1 percent of the time. Okay, no matter, maybe lightning struck twice and it was like the Portland State game, where Maier navigated the pocket so well the pressure didn’t affect him?

No, that didn’t work out quite so well in this contest. As one would expect, Maier threw for fewer yards on plays in which he was forced to elude the Weber front seven, and the two primary ball carriers in this game — running backs Namane Modise and Tehran Thomas — were far less successful on plays they were hit before making it back to the line of scrimmage. Contrast these outcomes with the rebounding win over North Dakota where the protection was much better and everyone on the Aggie offense got to live their best life.

Deja vu! Maier to Doss for a 65-yard completion and another AGGIE TOUCHDOWN. @UCDfootball leads 14-7 with 12:03 left in the 1st. #GoAgs pic.twitter.com/rzRZilOxTy

— UC Davis Football (@UCDfootball) October 1, 2017

Watch Maier’s eyes and footwork on this play. Shortly after taking the snap, he drops back and glances right as he sees a North Dakota defender bearing down on him, likely triggering flashbacks in Maier of what had befallen him the week before. However, upon seeing the running back and right tackle upend the defender with a combo-block, Maier calmly plants his feet, strides forward in the pocket and delivers a tight spiral to all-conference superhero junior wide receiver Keelan Doss.
Similarly, let’s see what life was like for the rushing attack in this game.

TOUCHDOWN AGGIES! C.J. Spencer takes it to the house with a 5 yard run. We’re 1:59 min in and the Aggies are on the board 7-0! #GoAgs pic.twitter.com/2eRUwY03wB

— UC Davis Football (@UCDfootball) October 1, 2017

That’s some good, clean living for junior running back CJ Spencer, who isn’t touched by a defender until he’s inches from the goal line. Senior right guard Julian Bertero does a fine job pulling from the right side of the formation to the left and blocking the safety who steps up to try and make the emergency tackle at the goal line, to no avail. The result is Spencer cruising to the goal line, letting his momentum carry him the rest of the way. Life is good when you can hold the line.
Just how much better is it?

Yeah, it’s a lot better. Notice those distributions from the Weber game are both clustered at or around zero. That’s because the Aggies averaged 2.5 yards per rush against Weber, and 5.8 yards per pass. In contrast, against North Dakota, the offense averaged 5.9 yards per carry and a whopping 10.3 yards per pass. Those differences should speak for themselves, but to reinforce the point, recall an efficient first down play is one that generates 50 percent or more of the needed yardage, meaning an average of 2.5 yards per rush is grossly inefficient, while 5.9 yards per rush will keep your offense humming and on schedule.

Red Light, Green Light

College football stats heads will likely know that there are five factors closely correlated with winning football games. The fifth of these factors is the notion of finishing drives, or what some call “Green Zone Offense.”
Most regular consumers of football are familiar with the “Red Zone”—i.e. when the offense is within 20 yards of the opponent’s goal line. Expanding the “Red Zone” gives us the “Green Zone,” or any time the offense is within 40 yards of the opponent’s goal. This may seem generous, but think about it: if you cross the 40, you’ve either put together a drive that’s worked for at least a few plays, or you’ve inherited excellent starting field position. This means if you have a drive that’s worked so far, it would be a shame to waste it and come away with no points. Couple that with the importance of explosive plays (it’s hard to string together a bunch of little plays), and the impressive range of some kickers, and you can see why the ability to finish drives is a strong predictor of who wins the ball game.
How did the Aggies do at finishing drives against Weber? Well, they only scored three points, so I’ll spare you having to look on that visualization. Let’s jump to the game against North Dakota instead.

That looks pretty good! On all but one drive where the Aggie offense entered the “Green Zone,” they successfully finished the drive and came away with points. More specifically, the offense generated 5.125 points per drive on drives crossing North Dakota’s 40 yard line. Per Football Study Hall over at SB Nation, a team averaging between five and five and a half points per drive on such drives, goes onto win the game 68.4 percent of the time. Couple this with the knowledge that the Aggie offense was also quite explosive, see:

That’s one way to start the game. Maier connects with Doss for a 49 yard pass on the first play of the game! #GoAgs pic.twitter.com/Ec4SuBnSdB

— UC Davis Football (@UCDfootball) October 1, 2017

and life starts to look pretty good.

Dispelling Myths

On a final ancillary note, I wanted to take the old adage that teams who run the ball more, win. The intuition behind this follows the thinking that a tough, gritty football team, willing to run the ball more, will inevitably tire out its opponent, and go on to win the game. In fact, it has long been shown this statement inverts cause and effect. In truth, teams who are winning run the ball more.

Here we see the distribution of passing and rushing plays by offensive drive. Note that earlier drives are composed of a little more than 50 percent passing plays. However, at the end of the game, the Aggies’ final two drives are 100 percent rushing plays. Why? Because running the ball does two things: it limits turnovers from interceptions, and it keeps the game clock moving by reducing the number of clock stoppages from incomplete passes.

Wrapping Up

Thanks for spending some time parsing the numbers and tape with me. Football is a challenging game to discuss rigorously because of the number of moving parts and sheer number of players associated with each play. The problem is compounded by the dearth of deeper statistics to work with. For example, in scrutinizing quarterback play, average air yards per attempt (how many yards the ball traveled through the air) is often a better indicator of a quarterback’s skill throwing the ball, than more familiar stats like yards per completion. Unfortunately, richer data is often hard to find for FCS programs, as they garner less media attention and generate less revenue.
Regardless, I hope you’ve found this statistical deep dive into the program helpful and enlightening.

Written By: Justin Goss — sports@theaggie.org

Disclaimer: The following content was a guest article written for The California Aggie by a class of 2014 UC Davis alum Justin Goss. For more access to articles written by Goss, visit his content here.